Convective Discussion March & April 2010

Widespread storm risk now on Sunday particularly in England, Wales and Ireland.

GFS suggests widespread showers here too.

Still looking very good tomorrow. Best risks for storms according to the GFS will be East Wales, The Midlands, CS England, Eastern Ireland, Northern Ireland and Northern England (NW England in particular). GFS may be overcooking things slightly but cape may not be far off 1000j/kg with LI around -3 or -4c so unstable conditions but remember this doesnt mean storms will occur but the chances are improved of course.

Convection getting going this morning.

well the Li and caps gone to wase here and cant see any more storm risk comming any time soon

There was a storm near Falkirk yesterday Stuart. However the charts never posed a big storm risk for Scotland in the end.

Met Office really emphasising showers/rain turning very heavy here tomorrow and becoming prolonged. Charts show a risk of thunder too.

next friday looking not to bad for my area will the gfs bin it or move it south we will find out in the next few days

GFS is very good for the Midlands and the South with warm/very warm temperatures of 22-25c from Thursday to Saturday. Cooler by Sunday. Good chance of Thunderstorms by Friday/Saturday too but with High pressure around it will need something to trigger convection off i think. However, again this risk seems reserved only for Central and Southern England and Eastern Wales.

Risk of the odd storm in the NE tomorrow. Otherwise its another hot and stunning day for most.