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 Convective Discussion June 2010

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PostSubject: Convective Discussion June 2010   Sun May 30, 2010 3:16 pm

Risk of a plume type set up later in the first week of June with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Subject to change yet but one to watch on the models as some very warm, humid air may reach much of the UK.

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Thu Jun 03, 2010 8:29 am

Risk of storms on sunday some parts of the uk
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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Thu Jun 03, 2010 9:48 am

Yes, hopefully some elevated storms pushing up from the South. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Thu Jun 03, 2010 10:35 am

yes hope i see some this time
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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Thu Jun 03, 2010 3:18 pm

Elevated storms imported from the Bay of Biscay may be advected thanks to a Plume on Sunday. GFS going for SW England and Wales as the place for the thickest of it but the Fax charts going for more CS England, The Midlands, perhaps East Wales and N England.

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Thu Jun 03, 2010 4:08 pm

GFS 18z run sticking with the westerly theme for Sunday with very heavy rain moving into SW England and then North/North Eastwards.

Low to Moderate risk of an Isolated thundery downpour in Wales and the Midlands tomorrow too.

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Thu Jun 03, 2010 4:37 pm

In Netweather this evening i had a reply from BBC's Points West (For Gloucestershire, Wiltshire, Somerset areas) weatherman Ian Fergusson about this weekend. Very Happy

Quote :
Blizzards, on 03 June 2010 - 19:39 , said:
There is this could be thundery (elevated in nature) however id wait till tomorrow evening at the earliest to say really. Positioning is still open to question though at the moment most charts seem to have moved it West from this morning when it was shown to be in the East.
___________________________________________________________
Ian Fergusson: Agreed. UKMO-GM also yet to be convinced on the E-W positioning (sizeable error margin) and a more westerly bias for plume engagement wholly plausible. We'll await the next runs with interest. Timing of the breakdown also open to major uncertainty (Saturday evening onwards seems a reasoned punt for some districts...stress 'some')

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Thu Jun 03, 2010 11:00 pm

Storm risk have gone for me on 0z run
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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Fri Jun 04, 2010 12:10 pm

Storms will be confined to the SE now as long as the models make no more changes. Only other hope really is some showers which may break out across the Midlands and some Northern areas tomorrow.

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Sat Jun 05, 2010 6:21 pm

Small Thunderstorm here. Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Sun Jun 06, 2010 6:20 am

Expecting more downpours and perhaps a thunderstorm today. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Sun Jun 06, 2010 6:35 am

Haven't we any weather warnings issued?
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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Sun Jun 06, 2010 9:43 am

Sorry but im only briefly online today as i have revision to do for an exam tomorrow.

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Sun Jun 06, 2010 1:18 pm

KK, this is why we all need acsess to these things Razz

Good luck btw Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Sun Jun 13, 2010 7:45 am

Thunderstorms expected here this evening. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Fri Jun 18, 2010 9:02 am

Thundery potential possible later next week. We will know at the beginning of next week.

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:22 am

Lots of Thundery potential this weekend. Maybe a few strong storms. Very high Cape across the Midlands this weekend. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Convective Discussion June 2010   Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:22 pm

Very tasty storm ingredients appearing for Sunday. Very Happy
A hot day expected. 27-31c could be the widespread high for Central and Southern England. GFS Keeps it hot next week too.

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