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 Spring discussion

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Sat Mar 13, 2010 3:47 pm

Hehe. Its still chilly in the wind. This coming week may feel quite nice. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:25 am

Brief look at the teleconnections. Don't really support a cold spell. NAO trending into positive. Stratospheric temps around neutral. Zonal winds are westerly but not that strong with the AO positive. That to me indicates mild (for us). The polar vortex remains disrupted however it has got its act together a little. Unsettled in the north but drier in the south. Temps (overall throughout the period) above average for most. Can't see any notable colder spells before the 25th at the least. I still think a below average month is likely. But nothing significant.


Last edited by Mark on Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:35 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:27 am

Some charts are trending it to turn cooler after this coming week but nothing significant if it comes off. Spring should really kick in this week. Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Sun Mar 14, 2010 5:33 am

Unfortunately i can't see much in the way of sunshine. Looks mild for sure! But mild and cloudy. Looking at the GFS as an example. Turning milder next week. Temps reaching to 14c-15c in the south. Perhaps some brighter intervals the further South and East you are. Turning unsettled as we head into the weekend. Also a little cooler. Unfortunately nothing spectacular. The North will be more unsettled. Rain everywhere on Thursday. This is obviously subject to change. Just an example of what one model shows. Which is not great!
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Sun Mar 14, 2010 10:00 am

Clear sunny and dry here great day and outdoor temperature hit 10c.
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Sun Mar 14, 2010 10:24 am

(Main page updated)

Turning milder...



A cold first half to March! Will it finally turn milder? Yes it will! Already its feeling milder across the UK with temps reaching the low teens. So what does the second half of the month have in store?

The third week looks quite mild. Unfortunately I can’t see much in the way of sunshine. With the NAO trending positive low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south will be theme. Dry in the south and unsettled in the North. Temperatures will be quite mild for a time, reaching the low to mid teens. Unfortunately sunshine will be a premium for most. An unsettled end to the week seems likely, for all.

The final week is uncertain. An unsettled start seems likely with temperatures around average to slightly above. The NAO and AO do show signs of trending back negative. This opens up the possibility of a cold spell to end the month. As mentioned on the forum I can’t see anything notable before the 25th. A cold end does seem a possibility though.

April outlook:

I would favour a cold start at current times.

Overall: Turning much milder for the third week with settled but mostly cloudy weather in the South, possibly turning cooler into the fourth week with the possibility of cold spell to end.
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Sun Mar 14, 2010 10:30 am

Thanks for the update. Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Mon Mar 15, 2010 11:26 am

Warm sunshine this morning. Cloudier this afternoon but still mild.

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 16, 2010 11:50 am

A nice, warm day once again. Sunshine pretty much all the way. Tomorrow looks pretty decent too but downhill from then but still mild. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 16, 2010 1:28 pm

Still happy with my update, sunshine seems a little more apparent than what i thought. At least for me, does go down hill from here though!
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 16, 2010 1:49 pm

Rain looks like being dominant on most days in the near future but not massive amounts each time. Its hardly going to be a washout. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 16, 2010 1:53 pm

Yeah, but it will be quite overcast at times.

Is that a cold end i see on the ECM! Would fit nicely with my forecast.
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 16, 2010 2:36 pm

Any cold just either gets pushed back or doesnt materialise at the moment. Cold was originally forecast this weekend but that wont happen now. Maybe chilly in the far North but temps generally 9-12c this weekend.

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 16, 2010 2:42 pm

Yes, it seems both have downgraded. Mild and Cold. Still above average overall though. But not spectacularly as we head into the weekend (quite mild beforehand). Teleconnections continue to hint with a pattern change to colder conditions. Something which is highlighted by the ECM.
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Wed Mar 17, 2010 11:44 am

Not that sunny today but pleasant outside so not bad at all. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Wed Mar 17, 2010 4:44 pm

Looking possible for the odd storm or two in places next week with some Cape, negative LI, steep lapse rates. TT index good but other factors poor so any storms wouldnt be severe. Western parts of the UK at best risk.

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Thu Mar 18, 2010 6:55 am

Windy here gusting up to 40mph tonight could get 60mph.
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Thu Mar 18, 2010 6:59 am

Why is there a warning out for heavy rain on Friday? The rain is no longer a concern its the wind now.
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Thu Mar 18, 2010 11:20 am

Cloudy but very mild today. The breeze even felt warm!

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Sun Mar 21, 2010 12:57 pm

The mild spell continues. As i expected nothing cold is forecast before the 25th. I shall stick with my original forecast of temps continuing around to above average, rainfall at times and some sunshine.

So what about the end of the month. I think a cool down is still possible. Both the AO and NAO are forecast to go into negative phase. This will mean an increase of heights towards the Greenland and arctic area.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Stratospheric temps and Zonal winds are close to average so the polar vortex is going to remain pretty much disrupted. Especially with an -AO developing. You can see the Zonal winds trending Easterly just ever so slightly as the AO trends towards negative phase

www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=temps&alert=1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=temps&alert=1
www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=fluxes&alert=1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=fluxes&alert=1

As we head towards the end of the month (Between the 26th and 30th) i think there is chance of North/North westerly bringing colder and wintrier conditions to the UK. I would place the risk at around 40% at current times. Will keep an eye on it as we head through the week. An unsettled start to April seem likely. On the cool side also seems a possibility.

Overall. Staying mild and unsettled till at least mid week. Perhaps turning cooler as we head towards the end of the month. April starting on an unsettled note.
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Mon Mar 22, 2010 2:01 pm

Not much rain again today. Mild in the sun. Tomorrow looks nice. Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 23, 2010 11:27 am

GFS backs my thoughts of a a wintry end to the month. Winds from a north/North Westerly direction and wintry showers. Will watch the models over the coming days.
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 23, 2010 11:57 am

Sad Dont want any cold to return. Thankfully it should be rather brief.

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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 23, 2010 2:40 pm

Weak blocking through the first half of April? An unsettled and cool start seems very possible!
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PostSubject: Re: Spring discussion   Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:23 pm

Unfortunately that is likely! I surpassed my Winter mood ages ago. Lol.

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