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 March review

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Mark



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PostSubject: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:34 am

Review of the long range forecast



So March is nearly over. It’s time to look back and evaluate how well the long range forecast did. I will not be taking into account updates (apart from the midmonth one).

First two weeks

If I was to make a forecast it would be for a cold start to March before turning milder in the second half. This would be due to the PV changing position and forcing the high to sink from the North West. I suppose that's speculation from me as I'm not knowledable enough to known were and how it’s going to move about. The PNA turning negative would be a good indication of us losing the -NAO as the lower heights transfer across from the pacific side.

A cold start to march was correct. The C.E.T was quite below average for the first ten days or so of the month. The weather turned milder (for the C.E.T zone) around the 14th. So it certainly turned milder as we headed towards and past midmonth!



Last two weeks

The third week looks quite mild. Unfortunately I can’t see much in the way of sunshine. With the NAO trending positive low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south will be theme. Dry in the south and unsettled in the North. Temperatures will be quite mild for a time, reaching the low to mid teens. Unfortunately sunshine will be a premium for most. An unsettled end to the week seems likely, for all.

The final week is uncertain. An unsettled start seems likely with temperatures around average to slightly above. The NAO and AO do show signs of trending back negative. This opens up the possibility of a cold spell to end the month. As mentioned on the forum I can’t see anything notable before the 25th. A cold end does seem a possibility though.

Overall: Turning much milder for the third week with settled but mostly cloudy weather in the South, possibly turning cooler into the fourth week with the possibility of cold spell to end.

It was certainly mild during the third week. Sunshine wasn’t widespread but was more than expected. The final week was milder than expected. Temperatures were above average rather than average to slightly above. As predicted nothing notably cold before the 25th. I had hinted at a cold end. This now seems likely. Some snow in places, especially to high ground. Nothing to prolonged though.



http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2010
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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:47 am

Thanks for the review. Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:49 am

No problem, i don't think it went to bad to be honest Smile
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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:53 am

Yes, very good i think.

Whens the April forecast been released?

P.s ive put the March review on the website too. Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 10:21 am

Should be tonight, if all goes to plan Smile
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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 10:59 am

Great review Mark Smile

This has just reminded me to get working on the 'Whats New' Video for April 2010.
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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:18 am

Great stuff Mark and sean. Very Happy

WC is improving very well now. Thanks all. Smile

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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:19 am

I must say the website looks much more professional than before and neater.
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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:45 am

It does indeed. Much more inviting. Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 2:49 pm

Not had time tonight, was watching a film lol. Will update it tomorrow seems as though its going to be wet and windy!
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PostSubject: Re: March review   Sun Mar 28, 2010 3:02 pm

Sad Nooooo. Lol.

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